主题：Holiday or Hangover? Housing Market Responses to a Temporary Tax Cut

中文题目：短期刺激还是长期隐忧？临时减税政策下的住房市场响应

Time: 2026年4月1日 上午10:00

Place:管理科研楼105案例室

主讲人: Yiting Deng (UCL)

Bio:

Yiting Deng is an Associate Professor of Marketing & Analytics at the UCL School of Management, University College London. She received her PhD in Marketing and MS in Statistics from Duke University. She also holds Bachelor’s degrees in Economics and Statistics and a Master’s degree in Economics from Peking University. Yiting’s research focuses on digital platforms and advertising. Her work has been published in leading academic journals such as Marketing Science, Management Science, Journal of Marketing Research, Production and Operations Management, Journal of Operations Management, among others. Her research on advertising targeting was recognized as a finalist for the Weitz-Winer-O’Dell award, the Don Lehmann Award, and the Robert D. Buzzell MSI Best Paper Award. She currently serves as an Associate Editor for Decision Science, Service Science, and the Journal of Business Research, and is a member of the editorial review board for Marketing Science.

照片：

Abstract:

Temporary transaction tax relief is frequently used to stimulate housing markets, yet its implications beyond short-run activity remain unclear. We examine how the 2020–2021 UK Stamp Duty Land Tax Holiday affected housing market behavior and subsequent resale outcomes. Using property-level listing data from the UK’s largest online housing platform combined with administrative transaction records, and applying propensity score matching with a difference-in-differences design, we compare properties exposed to the tax cut with otherwise similar properties that were already exempt. We find that the tax holiday tightened market conditions in the short run: properties eligible for the tax relief sold at higher prices, transacted more quickly, and were more likely to sell, with price effects concentrated in more deprived areas, where buyers face tighter credit constraints and are more sensitive to upfront transaction costs. However, these short-run gains did not persist. Properties purchased during the holiday experienced weaker resale price growth than comparable exempt properties, indicating that buyers paid a temporary premium that reduced longer-run returns. Overall, the results show that temporary transaction tax relief can stimulate housing market activity while disproportionately raising prices for more credit-constrained buyers, delivering limited longer-run benefits to purchasers.